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Your Environment. Your Health.

The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

Environmental Health Economic Analysis Annotated Bibliography

Details

Research article Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
Authors
Silva RA, West JJ, Lamarque JF, Shindell DT, Collins WJ, Dalsoren S, Faluvegi G, Folberth G, Horowitz LW, Nagashima T, Naik V, Rumbold ST, Sudo K, Takemura T, Bergmann D, Cameron-Smith P, Cionni I, Doherty RM, Eyring V, Josse B, Mackenzie IA, Plummer D, Righi M, Stevenson DS, Strode S, Szopa S, and Zengast G
Journal
Atmos Chem Phys
Summary
This study quantified the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution in years 2030, 2050, and 2100, using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios. Due to projected reductions in emissions, PM2.5 concentrations were shown to decrease relative to 2000 in all RCP scenarios, and were associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100. The global mortality burden of ozone markedly increased from 382,000 deaths per year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths per year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air-pollution related mortality were found to vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. The authors conclude that the assumed link between economic development and air pollution control in the RCPs requires new and stronger regulations around the world, as well as new control technologies, for the air pollution decreases in the RCPs to be realized.
Population
Adults (≥ 25 years)

Health Outcomes

  • Mortality (cause-specific mortality due to a variety of diseases, including chronic respiratory diseases, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, COPD, and lung cancer)

Environmental Agents

List of Environmental Agents:

  • Air pollutants (particulate matter (PM 2.5/fine), ozone (O3))

Source of Environmental Agents:

  • Anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions, natural emissions (biogenic volatile organic compounds, ocean emissions, soil and lightning NOx)

Economic Evaluation / Methods and Source

Type:

  • Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)

Cost Measured:

  • Premature mortality associated with ambient air pollution
  • global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 exposure

Potential Cost Measures:

  • Air pollutant effects on morbidity

Benefits Measures:

  • Avoided premature mortality associated with ambient air pollution

Potential Benefits: (Not available)

Location: (Not available)

Models Used:

  • Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) ensemble, Integrated Exposure-Response (IER) model for health impacts of PM2.5

Methods Used:

  • The authors used modeled ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) ensemble, along with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution in years 2030, 2050, and 2100. They — 1) obtained hourly and monthly output data for ozone and PM2.5 from the ACCMIP ensemble simulations for a base year (2000) and for future projections under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios; 2) applied a health impact function to estimate future air-pollution-related cause specific premature mortality associated with exposure to ozone and PM2.5 ambient air pollution; 3) calculated changes in premature mortality by applying the change in pollutant concentrations in each future year (2030, 2050, and 2100) relative to year 2000 concentrations; 4) gridded country-level population projections for 2030, 2050, and 2100 using ArcGIS 10.2 processing tools; 5) estimated the number of deaths per 5-year age group per country using the country level population; and 6) estimated the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and future periods relative to preindustrial 1850 concentrations.

Sources Used:

  • Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change (Silva et al., 2013); The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): overview and description of models, simulations and climate diagnostics (Lamarque et al. 2013); Tropospheric ozone changes, radiative forcing and attribution to emissions in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) (Stevenson et al. 2013); additional sources cited in publication

Economic Evaluation / Methods and Source

Citation:

  • Silva RA, West JJ, Lamarque JF, Shindell DT, Collins WJ, Dalsoren S, Faluvegi G, Folberth G, Horowitz LW, Nagashima T, Naik V, Rumbold ST, Sudo K, Takemura T, Bergmann D, Cameron-Smith P, Cionni I, Doherty RM, Eyring V, Josse B, Mackenzie IA, Plummer D, Righi M, Stevenson DS, Strode S, Szopa S, and Zengast G. 2016. The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble. Atmos Chem Phys.

Pubmed:

DOI:

NIEHS Funding:

  • 1R21ES022600-01

Other Funding:

  • Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology
  • dissertation completion fellowship from the graduate school at UNC Chapel Hill
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